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India – Uruguay: prediction and preview

International friendlies · matchday 1 · Tuesday 6 October 2026 · 16:00 (Madrid time)

Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Uruguay win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-1; expected goals 1.5 - 1.8.

1 · 32 %X · 23 %2 · 45 %

Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.

Preview

Uruguay close their Asian tour in Kolkata after losing 1-3 in Japan and winning 1-4 in South Korea. India come off a 1-1 draw with Panama and a 0-4 defeat to Brazil, with just 17% possession in their games. Diego Forlán has four absentees: De Arrascaeta (broken wrist, needs surgery), Sebastián Cáceres (groin), Mathías Olivera (minor muscle injury) and Brian Rodríguez, who could not travel because of a passport issue. The coach is expected to give minutes to fringe players such as Thiago Cardozo, Facundo Bernal, Rodrigo Zalazar or Martín Satriano, with Darwin Núñez (2 goals) as the reference. India should keep their 4-2-3-1 with Sandhu in goal and Ryan Williams up front. The site's statistical forecast gives 32% home, 23% draw and 45% away, with 1-1 the most likely score; Uruguay's rotation and travel narrow the gap between the sides.

Form and stats

IndiaUruguay
Last 5 (W-D-L)D LL W
Matches this season22
Goals scored per game0.52.5
Goals conceded per game2.52.0
Shots per game4.54.5
Corners per game3.00.5
Yellow cards per game0.01.5

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