Croatia – Spain: prediction and preview

Spain arrive in Split with a perfect record in Group A3 (3-2 at Wembley, 4-1 v Croatia and 3-1 v Czechia), and a win at the Poljud would put them close to first place. Croatia, third on 3 points, are at their lowest ebb: after the 1-4 in Spain they lost 0-7 to England, the heaviest defeat in their history, and Bilić is under heavy scrutiny. De la Fuente is without Pedro Porro, Eric García, Grimaldo, Nico Williams and Ferran Torres; Fran García fills in at left-back. Lamine Yamal (4 goals and 1 assist in the Nations League, 8 and 6 for Barcelona) is the main threat, with Pedri, Rodri and Olmo running midfield. For Croatia, Pongračić, Majer, Budimir and Beljo missed the England game and are doubtful; Modrić and Perišić remain the reference points, and Petar Musa arrives in form (18 goals for FC Dallas). Croatia are conceding 4 goals per game in this Nations League and manage just 2.7 shots on target. The site's statistical forecast gives 14% home, 15% draw and 71% away, with 1-2 the most likely score; Croatia's emotional response in front of their own fans is the big unknown.