Colombia – Peru: prediction and preview

Colombia close a transitional window in Miami without a win (1-1 in Mexico and 0-1 v Paraguay). Peru arrive in worse shape: 1-4 in the United States, 1-1 in Mexico and 0-2 in Canada, with just 4.7 shots per game. Néstor Lorenzo has turned to new faces: he left out Luis Díaz to manage his workload, James Rodríguez is no longer in the national team and Jefferson Lerma had a physical issue. In the 3-4-3, Richard Ríos and Gustavo Puerta run midfield, with Luis Suárez, Asprilla and Jhon Arias up front; the Colombian press points to Kevin Mier in goal. Peru are expected to rely on their 4-4-1-1 with Yotún as the link and Vélez and Valera in attack. Colombia have created little (0.5 goals per game) but face a very deep-lying opponent (35% possession). The site's statistical forecast gives 53% home, 24% draw and 23% away, with 1-1 the most likely score.