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Belarus – Finland: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Tuesday 6 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time)
Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Finland win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-1; expected goals 1.1 - 1.4.
1 · 30 %X · 27 %2 · 44 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Finland top Group C1 on 7 points after coming from behind to beat Albania (2-1) and visit Belarus, third on 4, in Budapest, where the Belarusians play their home games. The reverse fixture ended 0-0 in Helsinki.
Friis is expected to repeat the 4-3-3 with Hradecky in goal, Kairinen and Markhiev in midfield and Leo Walta (4 goals and 1 assist) in form, with Pohjanpalo (3 goals) up front. Kairinen is on two yellow cards. Goncharenko trusts his 4-2-3-1 with Pechenin, who has three assists, at full-back and Kontsevoy (2 goals) as the attacking reference after the 4-0 against San Marino. We have found no confirmed absences for either side.
Finland have conceded only once and hold 66% of the ball. The site's statistical forecast gives 30% home, 27% draw and 44% away, with 1-1 the most likely score; a draw would leave Albania able to take top spot.
Form and stats
| Belarus | Finland | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | L D W | W D W |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Shots per game | 10.7 | 14.3 |
| Corners per game | 3.3 | 6.3 |
| Yellow cards per game | 3.0 | 1.3 |
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