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Belarus – Finland: prediction and preview

Nations League · matchday 4 · Tuesday 6 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time)

Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Finland win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-1; expected goals 1.1 - 1.4.

1 · 30 %X · 27 %2 · 44 %

Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.

Preview

Finland top Group C1 on 7 points after coming from behind to beat Albania (2-1) and visit Belarus, third on 4, in Budapest, where the Belarusians play their home games. The reverse fixture ended 0-0 in Helsinki. Friis is expected to repeat the 4-3-3 with Hradecky in goal, Kairinen and Markhiev in midfield and Leo Walta (4 goals and 1 assist) in form, with Pohjanpalo (3 goals) up front. Kairinen is on two yellow cards. Goncharenko trusts his 4-2-3-1 with Pechenin, who has three assists, at full-back and Kontsevoy (2 goals) as the attacking reference after the 4-0 against San Marino. We have found no confirmed absences for either side. Finland have conceded only once and hold 66% of the ball. The site's statistical forecast gives 30% home, 27% draw and 44% away, with 1-1 the most likely score; a draw would leave Albania able to take top spot.

Form and stats

BelarusFinland
Last 5 (W-D-L)L D WW D W
Matches this season33
Goals scored per game1.33.0
Goals conceded per game0.70.3
Shots per game10.714.3
Corners per game3.36.3
Yellow cards per game3.01.3

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