Albania – San Marino: prediction and preview

Albania, second in Group C1 on 6 points, come off a 2-1 defeat in Helsinki, where they played almost the whole game with ten men after Etrit Berisha was sent off in the 22nd minute; they need a win to stay a point behind Finland. Bottom side San Marino have conceded 14 goals without scoring. Maran will be without the suspended Berisha, so there will be a new goalkeeper. The 3-4-3 with Hysaj, Djimsiti and Ismajli at the back, Asllani and Ramadani in midfield and Manaj (2 goals and 1 assist), Muçi and Hoxha up front is the base; Uzuni arrives with 6 goals for Austin FC. San Marino will sit deep in their 4-1-3-2 and average just 31% of the ball. The site's statistical forecast gives 86% home, 9% draw and 4% away, with 3-0 the most likely score; the question is whether Albania score early or get stuck against a very deep block.