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Romania – Sweden: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Monday 5 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Elchin Masiyev
Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Sweden win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-2; expected goals 1.2 - 2.3.
1 · 19 %X · 19 %2 · 62 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Romania end the window in free fall: three defeats in Group B4, twelve goals conceded and a 6-0 loss in Poland that leaves them bottom and in the relegation spot. Sweden lead on 7 points after a 1-1 in Bosnia and can take a big step towards promotion to League A.
Hagi must rebuild his defence: Radu Drăgușin was shown a straight red in Warsaw and Virgil Ghiță is suspended for accumulated bookings. Sweden are weakened by an illness outbreak: Walemark and Stroud left the camp, Ayari, Nygren and Lagerbielke could not travel to Bosnia and are doubts, and Alexander Isak left injured. Even so, Potter can count on Gyökeres (3 goals in the competition) and Zeneli, who has 2 goals and 5 assists for his club.
Balonario's model makes Sweden favourites: 62% away win, 19% draw and 19% home win, with 1-2 the most likely score (expected goals 1.21-2.32). Unless Romania fix their defensive fragility, this points to another long night in Bucharest.
Form and stats
| Romania | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | L L L | W W D |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per game | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| Shots per game | 11.0 | 10.3 |
| Corners per game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Yellow cards per game | 2.7 | 0.3 |
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