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Northern Ireland – Georgia: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Monday 5 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Sebastian Gishamer
Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Northern Ireland win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-0; expected goals 1.2 - 0.5.
1 · 54 %X · 31 %2 · 15 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Northern Ireland lead Group B2 on 7 points without conceding in three games, after an emphatic 3-0 win in Ukraine. Georgia are bottom with one point and have yet to score: defeat in Belfast would leave them in serious relegation trouble.
O'Neill has a young, well-organised side with little of the ball (34% average possession) but dangerous from set pieces: Ciaron Brown has 2 goals. He is still without captain Conor Bradley, out with a knee injury. Georgia rely on Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze, although the former has only 283 minutes for PSG this season, plus Mamardashvili in goal. Northern Ireland won the reverse fixture 1-0 in Tbilisi.
Balonario's model gives a 54% home win, 31% draw and 15% away win, with 1-0 the most likely score (expected goals 1.20-0.49). Everything points to a tight game where the first goal will weigh heavily.
Form and stats
| Northern Ireland | Georgia | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | W D W | L D L |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Shots per game | 10.7 | 11.0 |
| Corners per game | 1.7 | 5.7 |
| Yellow cards per game | 2.7 | 1.7 |
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