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Nicaragua – Dominican Republic: prediction and preview
Concacaf Nations League · matchday 4 · Monday 5 October 2026 · 04:00 (Madrid time)
Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Dominican Republic win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-2; expected goals 1.8 - 2.3.
1 · 31 %X · 20 %2 · 49 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Nicaragua are still pointless after three defeats and twelve goals conceded; the Dominican Republic, on 6 points, want to bounce back from a 4-1 loss to Haiti. The Dominicans won the first meeting of the window 3-2.
The Dominican Republic have the best talent on the pitch: Mariano Díaz (2 goals, 2 assists), Heinz Mörschel (2 goals), Pablo Rosario and Junior Firpo at full-back. They average almost 20 shots a game. Nicaragua create very little (6 shots per game) and depend on Raheem Cole. No absentees have been reported.
The site's model gives a 31% home win, 20% draw and 49% away win, with 1-2 the most likely score (expected goals 1.83-2.33). The gap in quality favours the visitors, though the first meeting showed Nicaragua can hurt them.
Form and stats
| Nicaragua | Dominican Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | L L L | W W L |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per game | 4.0 | 2.3 |
| Shots per game | 6.0 | 19.7 |
| Corners per game | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Yellow cards per game | 3.0 | 3.0 |
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