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Montenegro – Armenia: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Monday 5 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Manfredas Lukjancukas
Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Montenegro win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-1; expected goals 1.8 - 1.0.
1 · 55 %X · 23 %2 · 22 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Montenegro have a perfect record in Group C2 (9 points from 9) and a win over Armenia would put them on the brink of promotion to League B. Armenia, third on 3 points, lost 2-0 in Cyprus and need a result to keep pace.
Vučinić has an attack in form: Krstović (2 goals, 1 assist in the competition) and Adžić (2 goals, plus 4 for Sassuolo) lead the way, backed by Osmajić and Jovetić. He loses Aleksa Latković to a second booking. Armenia are without Edgar Sevikyan, also suspended for accumulated cards, and rely on Spertsyan (1 goal, 1 assist). Montenegro won the reverse fixture 3-2 in Yerevan in a very open game.
The site's model gives a 57% home win, 21% draw and 22% away win, with 2-1 the most likely score (expected goals 2.00-1.16). The first meeting and both sides' averages (2.3 and 1.3 goals per game) point to goals.
Form and stats
| Montenegro | Armenia | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | W W W | W L L |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Shots per game | 15.0 | 13.7 |
| Corners per game | 4.7 | 7.7 |
| Yellow cards per game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
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