Italy – Türkiye: prediction and preview

Italy are third in Group A1 on 4 points, three behind France and two behind Belgium, and need a win in Bologna to stay in the race for the top two. They come off a creditable 1-1 in Paris; Türkiye have lost all three games, scoring once and conceding eight, and are now looking over their shoulder at relegation. Mancini is likely to repeat the 4-3-3 with Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni and Calafiori; Frattesi, Tonali and Fagioli; and Pio Esposito up front, with Kean or Sebastiano Esposito alongside. Dimarco and Cristante remain out with fitness problems. Türkiye are without Arda Güler, suspended after his second booking of the competition, leaving Montella short of his main creator alongside Kökçü. Italy won the reverse fixture 4-1 in Bursa. The site's model gives Italy a 67% chance of winning, 19% draw and 14% Türkiye, with 2-0 the most likely score (expected goals 2.14-0.86). An early Italian goal would force Türkiye to open up, which is where they have struggled in this window.