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Guadeloupe – St. Lucia: prediction and preview
Concacaf Nations League · matchday 4 · Monday 5 October 2026 · 21:00 (Madrid time)
Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a St. Lucia win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-1; expected goals 1.6 - 1.9.
1 · 33 %X · 22 %2 · 45 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
St Lucia beat Guadeloupe 3-0 three days ago and arrive on 6 points; Guadeloupe are stuck on 4 and need a home win to keep up.
Guadeloupe count on Djamalee Boisné (3 goals) and the creativity of Plumain and Giblaca, but have conceded six goals in three games. St Lucia's attack is well spread: Kegan Caull (3 goals, 2 assists), Caniggia Elva and Kurt Frederick all contribute goals and assists. No absentees have been reported.
Balonario's model gives a 33% home win, 22% draw and 45% away win, with 1-1 the most likely score (expected goals 1.62-1.90). The recent result points to St Lucia, though Guadeloupe should be more aggressive at home.
Form and stats
| Guadeloupe | St. Lucia | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | W D L | L W W |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Shots per game | 12.7 | 12.3 |
| Corners per game | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| Yellow cards per game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
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