France – Belgium: prediction and preview

France (7 points) and Belgium (6) meet for top spot in Group A1 with two rounds left, Italy three points behind Les Bleus. Zidane's side are unbeaten and have conceded once in three games, though they were held 1-1 by Italy; Belgium arrive on a high after a 3-0 win over Türkiye and had already won in Italy. Suspensions shape the game. Belgium lose Kevin De Bruyne (2 goals, 1 assist in the competition) and captain Youri Tielemans to yellow-card accumulation, so their midfield is rebuilt: Vanaken, Lavia or Raskin are the options. France are without Upamecano, sent off against Italy, and Mbappé, who left the camp with a knee problem; Olise (2 goals, 1 assist) and Cherki carry the creative load. Balonario's model sees a very even contest: 35% France win, 32% draw, 33% Belgium, with 0-0 the most likely score (expected goals 0.98-0.93). Without their creative axis, Belgium are likely to sit deeper against a France side averaging 64% possession.