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Wales – Denmark: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Irfan Peljto
Balonario prediction (statistical model + market): the most likely outcome is a Denmark win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-1; expected goals 1.5 - 1.4.
1 · 31 %X · 25 %2 · 43 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Group A4 is tight: Wales, Denmark and Norway all have 3 points behind Portugal. Wales lost their first two games (0-1 in Portugal and 0-2 in Copenhagen) before beating Norway 2-1; Denmark beat Wales but have lost to Norway and to Portugal (2-4).
Bellamy confirms a 4-2-3-1 with Ampadu and Jordan James in midfield, Brennan Johnson, Koumas and Sorba Thomas behind Liam Cullen, and Danny Ward in goal, without the injured Harry Wilson, Rodon, Broadhead and Davies. Riemer, without Dorgu, goes 4-3-3: Hjulmand, Højbjerg and Frøholdt in midfield, with Isaksen and Daramy alongside Højlund. Bosnian referee Irfan Peljto takes charge.
Denmark shoot more (15 per game against 9) but have conceded 2.3 per match. The site's statistical forecast gives 41% home, 25% draw and 34% away, with 1-1 the most likely score; Welsh pace out wide against a leaky Danish defence is the key.
Form and stats
| Wales | Denmark | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | L L W | L W L |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Shots per game | 9.0 | 15.0 |
| Corners per game | 3.0 | 4.7 |
| Yellow cards per game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
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