United States – Mexico: prediction and preview

The Concacaf rivalry arrives at the start of the new World Cup cycle with contrasting form this window: the USA have scored eight goals in two games (4-1 v Peru, 4-2 v Chile), while Mexico drew 1-1 with both Colombia and Peru. The game is played at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara. Pochettino is backing new faces: Sebastian Berhalter (2 goals, 2 assists) and Julian Hall (2 goals, 1 assist) have been decisive, with Reyna as the No 10. McKennie, Pepi, Fossey and Steffen were sent back to their clubs with knocks and Pulisic is rested as a precaution. Mexico, without Raúl Jiménez or Edson Álvarez, also lost César Montes and Alan Cervantes to injury; Gilberto Mora and Obed Vargas lead a very young side. Balonario's model gives a 59% US win, 20% draw and 21% Mexico, with 2-1 the most likely score (expected goals 2.20-1.25), though it does not account for the game being played in Mexico. With both teams rebuilding, the atmosphere may weigh more than the absences.