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Republic of Ireland – Israel: prediction and preview

Nations League · matchday 4 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Juan Martínez Munuera

Balonario prediction (statistical model + market): the most likely outcome is a Republic of Ireland win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-0; expected goals 1.8 - 0.8.

1 · 50 %X · 26 %2 · 23 %

Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.

Preview

Ireland, second in Group B3 with 4 points, host bottom side Israel (one point) at the Aviva Stadium, having beaten them 0-3 in the reverse fixture played in Hungary. The backdrop is delicate: Hallgrímsson has admitted unrest in the squad and goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu declined to play in both games. Without the suspended Abankwah, Ireland line up with Kelleher in goal, a back three of O'Brien, Dunne and Scales, Moylan and Manning at wing-back, Knight, Coventry and Molumby in midfield, and Parrott (three goals) alongside Idah up front. Ben Shimon switches to a 4-3-2-1 with Gloukh and Abada behind Turgeman, seeking more attacking presence for a side scoring just 0.33 goals per game. Juan Martínez Munuera referees. Ireland have less of the ball (40%) but are more efficient and come off a 2-2 with Austria. The site's statistical forecast gives 60% home, 23% draw and 17% away, with 1-0 the most likely score.

Form and stats

Republic of IrelandIsrael
Last 5 (W-D-L)L W DL L D
Matches this season33
Goals scored per game1.70.3
Goals conceded per game1.02.0
Shots per game7.07.7
Corners per game2.32.7
Yellow cards per game2.01.0

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