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Republic of Ireland – Israel: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Juan Martínez Munuera
Balonario prediction (statistical model + market): the most likely outcome is a Republic of Ireland win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-0; expected goals 1.8 - 0.8.
1 · 50 %X · 26 %2 · 23 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Ireland, second in Group B3 with 4 points, host bottom side Israel (one point) at the Aviva Stadium, having beaten them 0-3 in the reverse fixture played in Hungary. The backdrop is delicate: Hallgrímsson has admitted unrest in the squad and goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu declined to play in both games.
Without the suspended Abankwah, Ireland line up with Kelleher in goal, a back three of O'Brien, Dunne and Scales, Moylan and Manning at wing-back, Knight, Coventry and Molumby in midfield, and Parrott (three goals) alongside Idah up front. Ben Shimon switches to a 4-3-2-1 with Gloukh and Abada behind Turgeman, seeking more attacking presence for a side scoring just 0.33 goals per game. Juan Martínez Munuera referees.
Ireland have less of the ball (40%) but are more efficient and come off a 2-2 with Austria. The site's statistical forecast gives 60% home, 23% draw and 17% away, with 1-0 the most likely score.
Form and stats
| Republic of Ireland | Israel | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | L W D | L L D |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Shots per game | 7.0 | 7.7 |
| Corners per game | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Yellow cards per game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Line-ups, referee and prediction settingsPlay the prediction gamePredictions 18+