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Netherlands – Serbia: prediction and preview

Nations League · matchday 4 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Donatas Rumsas

Balonario prediction (statistical model + market): the most likely outcome is a Netherlands win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-0; expected goals 1.8 - 0.9.

1 · 75 %X · 15 %2 · 10 %

Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.

Preview

The Netherlands, second in Group A2 with 5 points and still unbeaten (1-1 with Germany, 1-2 in Serbia and 2-2 in Greece), host bottom side Serbia, pointless after three defeats, in Eindhoven. Xavi needs a win to keep pace with Greece. Without Van Hecke, Kluivert, Malen, Brobbey and Gakpo, Xavi switches to a 4-3-3 packed with technical midfielders (Veerman, Koopmeiners, Gravenberch and Reijnders spread between midfield and defence), Summerville and Noa Lang wide and Meerdink, scorer of two in Belgrade, up front; Van Dijk and Van de Ven anchor the back line. Paunović drops the 5-4-1 for a bolder 4-4-2, with Tadić and Cvetković up front and Samardžić and Lukić creating. Lithuanian referee Donatas Rumšas takes charge. The Netherlands shoot 22 times per game with 64% possession; Serbia average just 33% of the ball. The site's statistical forecast gives 60% home, 22% draw and 17% away, with 1-0 the most likely score; Serbia's back four leaves more space in behind.

Form and stats

NetherlandsSerbia
Last 5 (W-D-L)D W DL L L
Matches this season33
Goals scored per game1.70.7
Goals conceded per game1.32.0
Shots per game22.07.0
Corners per game8.02.0
Yellow cards per game1.71.7

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