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Netherlands – Serbia: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Donatas Rumsas
Balonario prediction (statistical model + market): the most likely outcome is a Netherlands win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-0; expected goals 1.8 - 0.9.
1 · 75 %X · 15 %2 · 10 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
The Netherlands, second in Group A2 with 5 points and still unbeaten (1-1 with Germany, 1-2 in Serbia and 2-2 in Greece), host bottom side Serbia, pointless after three defeats, in Eindhoven. Xavi needs a win to keep pace with Greece.
Without Van Hecke, Kluivert, Malen, Brobbey and Gakpo, Xavi switches to a 4-3-3 packed with technical midfielders (Veerman, Koopmeiners, Gravenberch and Reijnders spread between midfield and defence), Summerville and Noa Lang wide and Meerdink, scorer of two in Belgrade, up front; Van Dijk and Van de Ven anchor the back line. Paunović drops the 5-4-1 for a bolder 4-4-2, with Tadić and Cvetković up front and Samardžić and Lukić creating. Lithuanian referee Donatas Rumšas takes charge.
The Netherlands shoot 22 times per game with 64% possession; Serbia average just 33% of the ball. The site's statistical forecast gives 60% home, 22% draw and 17% away, with 1-0 the most likely score; Serbia's back four leaves more space in behind.
Form and stats
| Netherlands | Serbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | D W D | L L L |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Shots per game | 22.0 | 7.0 |
| Corners per game | 8.0 | 2.0 |
| Yellow cards per game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
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