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Malta – Andorra: prediction and preview
Nations League · matchday 4 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 18:00 (Madrid time) · referee: Mikkel Hedberg Redder
Balonario prediction (statistical model + market): the most likely outcome is a Malta win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-0; expected goals 1.7 - 0.7.
1 · 59 %X · 27 %2 · 14 %
Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.
Preview
Malta lead Group D1 on 4 points (2-1 in Andorra and 1-1 v Gibraltar) and host Andorra, third on one point, in the return of the matchday-one fixture.
De Leo keeps a 4-2-3-1 with Teuma (a goal and an assist) and Irvin Cardona (a goal and an assist) as the creative pieces and Chouaref wide; his side have the ball (60%) and 6.5 shots on target per game. Koldo Álvarez relies on Iker Álvarez in goal and Llovera and San Nicolás at the back; Guillaume López, Andorra's only scorer, is the threat. Éric De las Heras is on two yellow cards, but we found no confirmation of a ban, nor any absences in reliable outlets for either side. Danish referee Mikkel Redder is in charge.
Malta are better on the numbers, though the draw with Gibraltar is a reminder that they struggle to close games out. The site's statistical forecast gives 48% home, 28% draw and 24% away, with 1-0 the most likely score.
Form and stats
| Malta | Andorra | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (W-D-L) | W W D | L D L |
| Matches this season | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Shots per game | 10.0 | 7.7 |
| Corners per game | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Yellow cards per game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
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