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Greece – Germany: prediction and preview

Nations League · matchday 4 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 20:45 (Madrid time) · referee: Clément Turpin

Balonario prediction (statistical model + market): the most likely outcome is a Germany win. Most likely score according to the model: 1-1; expected goals 1.4 - 1.1.

1 · 31 %X · 25 %2 · 44 %

Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.

Preview

Greece are the surprise of Group A2: top with 7 points after winning in Serbia and in Germany (0-1, their first win over the Germans in eleven meetings) and drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands. Germany, third on 4, bounced back with a 2-0 win over Serbia and want revenge in Thessaloniki. Klopp, without Musiala and Havertz, picks a young 4-4-2: Urbig in goal, Thiaw and Anton at the back, Pavlović and Bischof in midfield, Lennart Karl and Wirtz inside, and Burkardt and Scherhant up front. Jovanović, without Tzolis, answers with Masouras and Kyziridis wide, Kourbelis and Zafeiris in midfield and the Pavlidis-Ioannidis pairing up front; Tsimikas returns at full-back. Clément Turpin referees. Germany dominate the ball (65%) and shoot 19 times per game; Greece, with 38% possession, hurt teams on the break. The site's statistical forecast gives 44% home, 27% draw and 29% away, with 1-1 the most likely score.

Form and stats

GreeceGermany
Last 5 (W-D-L)W W DD L W
Matches this season33
Goals scored per game1.71.0
Goals conceded per game1.00.7
Shots per game14.019.3
Corners per game4.77.0
Yellow cards per game2.30.7

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