Azerbaijan – Lithuania: prediction and preview

Lithuania lead Group D2 on 4 points (2-0 in Liechtenstein and 1-1 in Baku) and face Azerbaijan again, second after two draws. The first meeting ended 1-1 and the group trend is towards few goals. Abbasov keeps a possession-heavy 4-2-3-1 (62%) with Emreli, Azerbaijan's only scorer, as the reference and Mutallimov and Bayramov creating wide; yet his side has scored only once despite averaging 17 shots. Jankauskas replies with a 3-4-3 in which Kučys (a goal and an assist), Michelbrink and Dolžnikov are the threats and Gineitis organises midfield. We found no confirmed absences in reliable outlets for either side. The data point to a very even game: expected goals are almost identical (0.99 v 0.98). The site's statistical forecast gives 35% home, 31% draw and 34% away, with 0-0 the most likely score. A draw would keep Lithuania ahead.