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Aruba – Anguilla: prediction and preview

Concacaf Nations League · matchday 5 · Sunday 4 October 2026 · 01:00 (Madrid time)

Balonario prediction (statistical model): the most likely outcome is a Aruba win. Most likely score according to the model: 2-0; expected goals 2.3 - 0.7.

1 · 74 %X · 17 %2 · 9 %

Statistical estimate, not a certainty. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.

Preview

Aruba have won both games without conceding (6 points) and host bottom side Anguilla, who have lost four times this window without scoring. Aruba won the reverse fixture 2-0. Aruba dominate possession (64%) and take 20 shots a game, with Roviën Ostiana and Mishawn Molina among the scorers. Anguilla barely have the ball (20%) and average less than one shot on target per game. No absentees have been reported. Balonario's model gives a 74% home win, 17% draw and 9% away win, with 2-0 the most likely score (expected goals 2.31-0.67). The only question is how long Aruba take to break down a deep block.

Form and stats

ArubaAnguilla
Last 5 (W-D-L)W WL L L L
Matches this season24
Goals scored per game1.50.0
Goals conceded per game0.02.8
Shots per game20.04.2
Corners per game8.01.8
Yellow cards per game1.01.0

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